Biden 28-You heard it here first: How Joe Biden can win in 2028

Some Home Truths

Joe Biden has never lost a Presidential election.

He is also the only living Democrat eligible to run for office who has never lost a Presidential election he has entered.

He is a proven Trump-slayer, winning a crushing victory against an incumbent President Trump in 2020.

He has to be the first name in the conversation for the Democrats next Presidential candidate. 

And I would argue the only name.

The 2028 context

The battleground states in 2028 will be the same as in 2020 when Biden became the first candidate to unseat an incumbent President in nearly thirty years, and one of a select few politicians to do this in the last century. 

They are the same battlegrounds as in 2016 and 2024 when Trump defeated Democrat candidates too easily associated with the liberal coasts. 

Whilst 2016 and 2024 saw big electoral college defeats for the Democrats, 2020 saw a big victory. The Republican candidate was the same in all three elections suggesting that the ‘Biden factor’ is significant.

His 2020 victory was not a fluke, but a masterclass in coalition-building across generational, racial, and ideological divides. He flipped the so-called “blue wall” back (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania) while retaining Georgia and Arizona. These weren’t accidental wins; they were the result of the right candidate demonstrating a deep understanding of battleground America.

It’s also too easily forgotten how Biden oversaw one of the most transformative and impactful presidencies since FDR, ending the covid-pandemic, resolving the longest war in American history, 

The Democrats have a candidate with experience of winning three presidential elections (if you count his two with Obama) and delivering substantial legislative change in office.

 “Scranton Joe” still stands as the Democrat most able to win. 

This makes him the last great hope of American liberalism. 

And maybe the man to save the world.

Absence of alternatives

No current Democrat polls significantly ahead of Trump. The various governors and senators whose names float around the 2028 discussion all lack the name recognition, national infrastructure and intergenerational trust that Biden uniquely commands. When Democrats are fractured between progressives and moderates, Biden remains a rare figure who can plausibly speak to both without alienating either.

This broad appeal stretches to the wider electorate, where suburban independents, older voters, and swing-state moderates view him fundamentally as safe. This perception is a heavily underrated quality, and cannot be easily replicated by any new face, however dynamic. In a fractured and brutally tribal electorate, the possession of a known brand and the ability to command trust matters more than novelty. 

The same factors which applied in 2020 still apply in 2028. After four years of the spectacle and chaos of Trump, American voters will likely again be in the mood for stability and composure, just as they were in 2020. Again, Biden will win this contest.

America loves a comeback

American electoral history is replete with unexpected political comebacks. Grover Cleveland won non-consecutive terms. Richard Nixon came back after apparent political exile. Donald Trump’s return to the Presidency would have been considered utterly inconceivable after his defeat in 2020. 

So there is precedent for such a comeback, and Biden would be returning not after scandal or defeat, but after completing one of the most consequential presidential terms since FDR. 

To put this in Star Wars terms, whilst we can see Biden as ‘A New Hope’ in 2020, we are now living through ‘The Empire Strikes Back’. The final instalment is awaiting us in 2028, as Joe gives us ‘The Return of the Jedi’. 

Or maybe ‘The Return of the Joedi’

Biden’s entire political story could be written as one of spectacular comebacks from a range of political (and personal) setbacks. 

It was widely believed that Joe Biden’s presidential ambitions had ended after he was caught plagiarizing a speech by Neil Kinnock in 1988. It was certainly seen as over when his campaign for the democratic nomination in 2008 received minimal support. It was undoubtedly seen as over when his two terms as Vice-President ended in 2017 at the age of 73. Finally, it was seen as dead beyond any redemption after the catastrophe of 2024.

Unlike Donald Trump in 2020, Biden did not lose in 2024. 

His ‘comeback’ is more plausible than other political comebacks American has seen, and in keeping with Biden’s entire political career and even his life. 

Biden’s recovery from continual comebacks can be told as the story of America. 

The reservation

There is one obvious reservation around Biden, and it is the same issue which caused him to withdraw from the contest in 2024. This is his age (and related acuity and fitness to perform his duties). In 2024, he was forced to withdraw from the contest after his lethargic debate performance made other Democrats consider him an electoral liability. 

His withdrawal from the race was seen to herald the end of his long political career.

However, arguably the fault was not his decision to run again but his decision to expose himself to the rigours of a presidential election debate. This must be avoided in 2028 no matter how much sustained pressure the Republicans put on him.

A refusal to appear in a Presidential debate may at first appear difficult to sustain, but Biden in unique in his ability to present himself as above the fray of ugly point-scoring. The behaviour of Trump in the last three debates could be used by Biden as an argument that the institution has been so devalued that he is choosing to bypass it.

Only Biden, with 36 years as a senator, 8 years as Vice President and 4 years as President could make this argument. He is older than the institution of presidential debates and the only man in America with the moral authority to terminate this charade.

A further mitigation concerns the changing nature of the US presidency. Two terms of Donald J. Trump have irreversibly shaken the concept of the Presidency in a way which Democrat pundits and strategists still show no sign of recognising.

As controversial as it may sounds, the ability to do the job of President is no longer relevant. 

Too many pundits reveal their “West Wing” obsession by imagining an acute intellect like President Bartlett making intelligent decisions based on received information. 

By 2028, Americans would have had 12 years without a competent, erudite and non-geriatric commander-in-chief. The Obama years will seem like a distant boomer myth, never mind that the previous eight years had seen George W. Bush stumble his way through the Presidency. 

This is not a country that’s going to elect Liz Warren, Pete Buttigieg or anyone else who looks like they could hold their own in a policy seminar. 

Jeb Bartlett was a fictional character for a reason. 

Joe Biden was a real President for a reason. 

The 2028 strategy

The Democrat strategy in 2028 should be to minimise exposure of Joe Biden to the voters to the greatest extent possible.

This was key to his victory in 2020, when the covid-enforced inability to meet the general public massively helped Biden by minimising the opportunity for awkward moments (sniffing picture). 

2028 should see a replication of the 2020 campaign, buttressed by new technology which can further help Biden overcome the challenges of ageing. Although Biden would be 86 in 2028, age is increasingly a technological, not biological, limitation. 

The 2025 book “Original Sin” details how for much of the latter part of Biden presidency, there was a cabal of senior administration officials who were effectively running the country. There is a history of ‘Politburo’-type leadership of declining nuclear superpowers, and the concept should be reinvigorated for the second Biden Presidency.

Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) could also support Biden’s ability to govern, allowing the Democrats to offer a semi-new candidate in 2028, BAIden.

Other recent technological developments provide a revolutionary way to promote Biden as a presidential candidate in 2028, and to later help him govern. Hollywood has rapidly deployed de-aging technology to successful effect in multiple successful movies. By 2028, this technology would have been refined and likely have become mainstreamed amongst American audiences. 

Such de-aging technology could be for Biden what the mass adoption of television was for JFK in 1960. Just like ‘The Irishman’ brought back a 25-year-old Robert De Niro back to American audience, similar de-aging technology could bring a younger Biden to American audiences. 

This technology would not help Biden’s likely opponent, JD Vance, whose younger photos resemble the sort of creep you’d cross a street to avoid. For electoral purposes, the ideal version of Biden to present would be the 1990s Biden who pushed anti-crime legislation and helped the middle class. 

Footage from the era shows Biden as a powerful and passionate orator, with his effective resemblance of renowned election-winner Neil Kinnock, and his clinical demolition of Anita Hill.

Nostalgia is a powerful political weapon. Consider the success of ‘Take Back Control’ or ‘Make American Great Again’. In 2028, we need the Democrats to own nostalgia and remind Americans of a better age.

This can include a direct reference to Biden’s age, contrasting his decades of experience with JD Vance’s callow thoughtlessness. Selling Biden in 2028 to the American electorate as re-branded ‘Zimmer Joe’ can be sold as an optimistic story of elderly empowerment.

It would be appropriately iconic for the man most responsible for giving America their first black President in 2008, and the first female and minority Vice-President in 2020, to give America the first geriatric President.  

A Closing Thought 

Joe Biden may not run in 2028. But he could, and I would argue that he should – if not openly through primary contests, then letting it be known that he’d accept a coronation at the Convention. If the Democratic bench continues to look thin against aggressive Trumpism, and if no candidate of Biden’s status emerges, then the case for #DraftJoe could emerge organically. He remains the most tested option available and carries the least risks for the Democrats. His 2020 victory remains the template to replicate in 2028.

If Biden is selected, he should lean heavily into the narrative of safety, reassurance and nostalgia for a better age. Democrats should not repeat the 2020 mistake of ‘balancing’ the ticket with a younger minority female from the west coast. 

The approach should be one of relentless reinforcement of the narrative of safety, reassurance and nostalgia, doubling down on an unambiguous offer to the American electorate of a team they can trust.

This is why Biden should nominate Hilary Clinton as his running mate.

It is often forgotten that Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by nearly three million in 2016. This was despite eight years of a Democrat presidency, after which you might expect a strong Republican advantage. Clinton, having been First Lady, Senator, Secretary of State and a presidential nominee, would bring gravitas no one could match.

Together, the Biden-Clinton ticket offers something America has sorely lacked: credibility, predictability, and institutional memory.

In such uncertain times, such stability is a radical act.

Given the boomer generation (roughly those aged 65 to 80) represent a disproportionate 30% of the American electorate, it makes political sense to choose two candidates from this generation. The young are likely to vote Democratic anyway, and since it is with elderly whites with whom the Democrats disproportionately struggle, this is the demographic that Democrats should target.

Biden born in 1945, Clinton was born in 1947. These two individuals are America’s last connection with greatness and could promise America a return to a more glorious age.

Their selflessness in taking power as octogenarians could be the appropriate final act of service to a country for which their generation has given so much. 

This could be the last act in the story of America’s greatest and most selfless generation….the boomers.

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